ʻO ka kānana a me ka soybean global outlook: he aha ka mea i manaʻo ʻia no 2031?
Ma kahi hōʻike kūʻokoʻa o ka lālā IEC, ua hāʻawi ʻo Adolfo Fontes, Global Business Intelligence Manager ma DSM Animal Nutrition and Health, i kahi ʻike ʻike i nā ʻano honua e hiki mai ana i ka hana kulina a me ka soya.
Ua hoʻomaka ʻo ia ma ka hōʻike ʻana i nā makahiki he 2-3 e hiki mai ana, e pili ana ka nui o nā kānalua i ka mahiʻai, me:
- Paʻa Geopolitical
- Loaʻa ka loaʻa kālā a me ka pilikia ikehu
- ʻO ke aniau
- ʻO Covid 19 a me ka hoʻonui kālā
Ke nānā nei ʻo ia i mua o nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana, ʻōlelo ʻo ia e pili nui ka ulu ʻana o ka honua i ka mahiʻai ma muli o ka piʻi ʻana o ka noi no ka protein holoholona. Ua wānana ʻia a hiki i ka makahiki 2031, he 71 miliona mau tons o ka protein holoholona e pono ai ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa. Hōʻike nā kiʻi hou loa (2021) he 92 miliona mau hua hua i hana ʻia ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa - manaʻo ʻia e hoʻonui ʻia e 15% i nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana. No laila, hiki i nā hua ke lilo i mea hoʻonā maikaʻi no ka hoʻokō ʻana i nā koi protein o ka wā e hiki mai ana.
"Inā ʻike mākou i ke kālā hou aʻe i loko o nā ʻeke o ka heluna kanaka, e ʻike mākou i ka piʻi ʻana o ka hana protein holoholona", wānana ʻo Adolfo.
No ka hoʻolakoʻana i ka protein holoholona i ka heluna kanaka, e piʻi aʻe ka makemake no ka palaoa a me ka aila; no laila, he mea nui e nānā i nā ʻano hana hana a me ka hoʻohana ʻana ma nā wahi like ʻole o ka honua.
Hoʻohana ʻia ka palaoa a me ka aila i nā makahiki he 10 i hala
I loko o nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala iho nei, ua hoʻonui ʻia ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka meaʻai palaoa ma 30%, me ka palaoa e hōʻike ana i ka 70% o kēia mau kīʻaha. I ka manawa like, ua hoʻonui ʻia ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka meaʻai aila ʻaila ma luna o 34% wale nō, me 70% o kēia meaʻai he soybean. Me ka piʻi ʻana o ka noi no ka protein holoholona i ka makahiki 2031, pono mākou i 45 miliona mau toni soybeans e hiki ai ke hana i 35 miliona tonnes o ka soymeal a me kahi 95 miliona tons o ka palaoa.
ʻO ka ʻikena kulina
ʻOiai ua hoʻonui ʻia ka nui o ka palaoa mai 2001 a 2022, mai 571 miliona tons a 1,161 miliona tons, ua lohi ka piʻi ʻana o kēia piʻi ʻana me ka piʻi ʻana o 34.2% i ʻike ʻia mai 2011 a 2021, he ʻokoʻa me ka piʻi ʻana o 51.3% mai 2001 a 2011.
Ua ʻike ʻia ka piʻi nui loa o ka hana kulina i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala ma ka honua ma Argentina (ma luna o 150%). Eia nō naʻe, ke hoʻomau nei ʻo ʻAmelika i kona wahi ma ke ʻano he mea hana kulina nui loa ma ka honua, e hana ana i 384 miliona tonnes o ka palaoa ma 2021/2022. ʻO Kina ka lua o ka mea hana nui loa, ua ʻike i ka piʻi ʻana o ka hana o 2.9% i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala. Hōʻike ʻo Adolfo i ka wā e hoʻopuka ai ʻo Kina i 23.5% o ka palaoa o ka honua, pono ia e lawe mai, me ka ʻai ʻana o 26.9%.
ʻO nā kuhi kulina
Manaʻo ʻia ka piʻi ʻana o ka hua kulina honua ma kahi o 9% i nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana - ʻo ia ka emi ʻana o ka nui o ka hana i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka piʻi ʻana o 34% i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala. Manaʻo ʻia ʻo ʻApelika ka piʻi nui loa o ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hana ma 25%.
Ke hoʻonui nei nā hua i ka honua holoʻokoʻa, me ka piʻiʻana o ka honua he 6.4% i manaʻoʻia e 2031. He mea kaulana loa kēia ma'Afelika, Latin America a me Asia, me ka piʻiʻana o 17.7%, 8.6% a me 8.7%.
ʻO ka nui o ka ʻāina i ʻohi ʻia no ka hana ʻana i ke kulina i wānana ʻia e hiki i 211
Ma nā ʻōlelo o nā ʻāpana, ʻo ʻAmelika ʻĀkau a me ʻAsia e manaʻo ʻia e hoʻomau i ke alakaʻi ʻana i ka hana kulina ma 2031 e pili ana i ka miliona miliona o ka palaoa i hana ʻia.
Hōʻikeʻike soya
Ma ke ʻano holoʻokoʻa, mai 2001 a 2022, ua hoʻonui ʻia ka hana soybean honua ma ka wikiwiki, me ka piʻi ʻana o 46.9% o ka hana i ʻike ʻia i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala aku nei i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka piʻi ʻana o 30% i ka makahiki mua o kēia kenekulia. Mai 2012 a 2022, ua ʻike ʻo Brazil i kahi kokoke i 90% ka piʻi ʻana o ka hana, e ʻoi aku ana i ka USA e lilo i mea hana nui loa o ka soybeans ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa, e hōʻike ana i ka 36.2% o ka hana ma 2021/2022 me 126 miliona tons. ʻO ka US ka lua o ka mea hana nui loa, me 121 miliona tons i 2022.
He kiʻekiʻe ka lawe ʻana mai o ka soybean ma Kina, ʻo kēia lāhui he 4.7% wale nō o ka hana ʻana a ʻo ka ʻai ʻana i 31% o ka māhele honua. Ke hoʻohālikelike nei, ke hana nei ka US i 34.7% akā e ʻai ana i ka 18.4%.
Hōʻikeʻike soya
Mai 2021 a 2031, manaʻo ʻia e hoʻonui ka hana soybean ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa e 15.7%, kahi hoʻohaʻahaʻa mai ka piʻi ʻana o 47% o nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala.
Hoʻokumu ʻia ka hana Soybean e nā ʻAmelika, me ʻAmelika ʻAmelika i manaʻo ʻia e alakaʻi i ka 2031 ma 217 tons (he piʻi o 20%) a me ʻAmelika ʻĀkau ka lua ma 138 miliona tons ma hope o ka piʻi ʻana o 9% i nā makahiki he ʻumi. Ua wānana ʻia ʻo ʻAmelika ʻAmelika ke kuleana no kahi kokoke i 40 miliona mau tons soybeans i nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana.
E piʻi aʻe ka awelika o ka soybean e 12% ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa, me Latin America wale nō ke ʻike i ka piʻi ʻana o ka hua o 17%.
No laila… no hea mai kā mākou kulina a me ka soya i nā makahiki 10 e hiki mai ana?
Ma keʻano holoʻokoʻa, ua manaʻo ʻia he 55.9 miliona tons soybean e hana ʻia i nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana - 21.6 miliona tons o kēia e hele mai mai Brazil mai, me 9.4 a me 8.9 e hele mai ana mai Argentina a me USA.
ʻO 109.5 miliona mau kānana hou aʻe e hana ʻia i nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana. ʻO Kina, Brazil a me ʻAmelika ka mea kōkua nui i kēia, me ka 24.2, 21.7 a me 16.6 miliona mau tons.
Loaa aku oi!
No ka 'ike hou aku e pili ana i ke kulina a me ka soya ma kou wahi, e kaomi i ke pihi ma lalo nei e nana i ka hoike piha a Adolfo. E ʻoluʻolu e hoʻomaopopo i ke komo ʻana i kēia wikiō no nā lālā IEC wale nō.
Kaomi ma aneʻi e nānā i ka hōʻike piha