Nā Pōʻai Kūʻai Kūʻai: Kākoʻo nā ʻike i hala i kahi manaʻo maikaʻi no ka ʻoihana hua manu
9 May 2023
I loko o kāna hōʻano hou no ka IEC ma ka Pōʻalua 18 ʻApelila, ua hāʻawi ʻo Adolfo Fontes, Senior Global Business Intelligence Manager ma DSM Animal Nutrition and Health, i kahi ʻike loea o 'Grain Price Cycles - He aha kā mākou e aʻo ai mai nā ʻike mua?'
Ke hōʻike nei i kahi ʻelele honua ma ka IEC Business Conference ma Barcelona, ua hāʻawi ʻo Adolfo i nā hiʻohiʻona pōkole a me ka wā lōʻihi, ma mua o ka hāʻawi ʻana i kahi loiloi mōʻaukala holoʻokoʻa o ka palaoa, ka palaoa a me ka soybeans, me ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā hiʻohiʻona i hala e hāʻawi i nā ʻike i ka wā e hiki mai ana.
Nā mea e pili ana i ka wā e hiki mai ana
No ka hoʻomaka ʻana i kāna hōʻike ʻana, ua ʻimi ʻo Adolfo i nā kānalua i ka wā pōkole e pili ana i ke kaulahao hua manu, e ʻimi ana i ka pae o ka hopena a me ka wānana.
E pili ana i nā pilikia hoʻokele waiwai o ka honua, ua wehewehe ʻo ia: "ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻonui ʻana a me nā ʻano mea kūʻai aku inā hoʻohālikelike mākou i ka wā i hala." Ua wehewehe ʻo ia i ka ʻāina hoʻokele waiwai "ʻaʻole maopopo, akā ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi ma mua o ia", i ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana i ka hopena o ka makahiki i hala. Ua maikaʻi nō hoʻi ʻo ia e pili ana i nā kumukūʻai hana: "ʻO nā kumukūʻai palaoa, nā kumukūʻai ikehu - ua hoʻomaikaʻi nui lākou i nā mahina i hala iho nei." I ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka noiʻi hihia o Netherlands, ua hōʻike ʻo Adolfo i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ke kumukūʻai kinoea maoli e emi nui, ma hope o ka piʻi ʻana ma kahi o Kepakemapa 2022.
Ua hōʻike pū ʻo Adolfo i ke koʻikoʻi o ke ʻano o ka wā i ka ʻoihana palaoa, e noʻonoʻo ana i nā makahiki paʻakikī loa ma ʻAmelika Hema: "Ua hoʻopilikia nui ʻia ʻo ʻArgentina e nā makahiki like ʻole o ka La Niña weather phenomenon, he hopena nui i ka loaʻa ʻana o ka soymeal i ka honua. ʻo lākou ka mea kūʻai nui loa." A laila ua hoʻomau ʻo ia i ka wehewehe ʻana e manaʻo ʻia ka wānana e neutralize, e alakaʻi ana i nā hopena maikaʻi aʻe no ka ʻoihana palaoa. Eia naʻe, hiki ke hoʻololi i nā kūlana El Niño ma hope o kēia makahiki, kahi e hoʻohui ai i kahi kānalua i ka nānā.
Ua ʻike pū ka mea haʻiʻōlelo loea i nā mea ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi: "ʻOiaʻiʻo, paʻakikī loa ka maʻi e wānana." Ke hōʻike nei i ka maʻi puaʻa ʻApelika a me ka avian influenza ma ke ʻano he hopohopo nui, ua ʻōlelo ʻo ia: "ʻAʻole lākou e hoʻopilikia wale i ke kaulahao waiwai protein holoholona, akā i nā mākeke palaoa." ʻO ka mea hope loa, ua ʻae ʻo ia i nā ʻano geopolitical ʻo ia ka "paʻakikī loa" e manaʻo ai, ʻoiai e hoʻoikaika ana i ka pae koʻikoʻi o ka hopena i loaʻa iā lākou i kā mākou kaulahao waiwai.
Ke nānā nei i mua i ka ʻāina no ka wā lōʻihi, wehewehe ʻo Adolfo e hiki iā mākou ke manaʻo i ka "ulu paʻa" i kā mākou ʻāpana: "Ua manaʻo ʻia ka hana ʻana o ka hua manu, a pono e hoʻonui ʻia e 14 miliona mau tona i nā makahiki he 10 e hiki mai ana e hoʻokō i ka koi honua."
ʻO ka palaoa, ka palaoa a me ka soya: Nā hana i hala
Ma hope o kēia hiʻohiʻona, ua alakaʻi ʻo Adolfo i kahi mākaʻikaʻi hohonu o nā kumukūʻai palaoa i kēlā me kēia makahiki. Ua ʻike ʻo ia he ʻehā wale nō mau manawa i ke kenekulia i hala, ma mua o 2021, ka mea i ʻike i nā kumukūʻai o ka liʻiliʻi o ʻelua o nā mea kanu nui ʻekolu, kahi i hoʻomau ʻia ai ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai no ʻelua mau makahiki. ʻO kēia: 1973-74, 1994-95, 2006-08, a me 2010-12.
No laila, ua kālailai ʻo Adolfo i nā kumu o nā kumukūʻai moʻolelo i kēia mau makahiki. ʻO nā kumu i hoʻololi i kēlā me kēia manawa i hoʻohālikelike ʻia i ka nui o nā kānalua o kēia mau lā i kūkākūkā mua ʻia ma kāna hōʻike ʻana, ʻo ia hoʻi; nā kūlana o ka wā, ka hoʻololi waiwai, a me ka loaʻa ʻana o nā mea maka.
Ua hoʻohui ʻo ia ʻo ka manawa hou loa o nā kumukūʻai palaoa i hiki i kēia mau moʻolelo no nā makahiki ʻokoʻa ʻo 2021-2022, ma muli o nā kumu e pili ana i ka hoʻopilikia ʻana o COVID-19, ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana o Lūkia ma Ukraine, a me ka wā ʻino: "No laila ua hana hou ka ʻino maikaʻi no ka lima. manawa i ke kenekulia i hala, ʻelua o nā mea kanu nui ʻekolu e hoʻokō nei i nā pae moʻolelo no ʻelua a ʻoi aku paha makahiki.
Ma muli o kēlā me kēia o nā wā mōʻaukala i ukali ʻia e ka emi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai palaoa, ua hōʻike ʻo Adolfo hiki iā mākou ke manaʻolana i nā kumukūʻai kūpaʻa hou aʻe no nā makahiki e hiki mai ana ma hope o ka hiki ʻana mai o nā pae moʻolelo..
He manaʻo manaʻo maikaʻi
Ua aʻo pū ʻo Adolfo i ka pilina ma waena o ka lākiō stock-to-use a me nā kumukūʻai no ke kulina, ka palaoa a me ka soya. Ua hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻo ia ʻoiai ʻo kekahi mau mea i hoʻokumu ʻia e nā hanana i ʻike ʻole ʻia e like me ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana o Lūkia ma Ukraine a me COVID-19, aia kahi ʻano e hahai ai nā kumukūʻai. "Ināʻoe e nānā i nā kuhi USDA no nā kauʻekolu e hiki mai ana, hiki iā mākou ke manaʻo e pili ana nā kumukūʻai i kēia laina, akā ma kahi kiʻekiʻe," i weheweheʻo ia. "ʻO ia ka manaʻo e hoʻomau ka emi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai, akā ke kūpaʻa nei i kahi kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe - e like me ka mea i hana ʻia i nā 70s, 90s, a me 2000s."
"Manaʻo wau he ʻokoʻa loa ka mākeke o kēia manawa mai ka wā i hala," i hoʻopau ai ʻo ia, "akā hiki iā mākou ke lilo i mea maikaʻi aʻe e pili ana i nā kumukūʻai palaoa i nā kau ʻekolu e hiki mai ana. Hiki ke hoʻololi, ʻoiaʻiʻo, hāʻawi ʻia ke kūlana me ke kaua, hāʻawi ʻia ke kūlana me ke aniau, akā ʻo kēia ke kiʻi hiki iā mākou ke kaha i kēia lā. "
E kiʻi i ke kiʻi piha
E pōmaikaʻi mai ka hōʻike piha ʻana o Adolfo i nā pōʻai kūʻai palaoa i hala a me ka wā e hiki mai ana. E nānā i kāna hōʻike ʻana i kēia manawa no ka ʻike hou aku i nā wānana kumukūʻai kikoʻī, ka hana ʻana a me nā hua e hiki mai ana, a me ka nānā ʻana i ka mākeke biofuel (loaʻa i nā lālā IEC wale nō).