Ntiaj Teb Qe Kev Lag Luam Outlook: Tsim cov tswv yim hauv lub sijhawm hloov pauv sai
Nyob rau hauv 'Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm thaj chaw tsis ruaj khov ntawm kev lag luam qe' Rabobank's Nan-Dirk Mulder qhia nws cov kws tshaj lij kev nkag siab rau cov kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws uas tau kwv yees los cuam tshuam rau lub qe lag luam hauv lub teeb ntawm cov teeb meem thoob ntiaj teb, nrog rau cov hauv kev rau 2022 thiab dhau mus.
Txheej txheem cej luam | Geopolitical instability, COVID-19 thiab AI.
Hauv nws qhov kev pom tshiab kawg rau kev lag luam qe, Nan-Dirk Mulder, Tus Kws Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij rau Tsiaj Protein ntawm Rabobank, tau tshawb nrhiav ntau yam uas ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig rau qhov nws tau piav qhia tias "tej zaum lub sijhawm cuam tshuam tshaj plaws uas peb tau pom txij li Tsov Rog Ntiaj Teb Zaum II rau lub sijhawm. tsiaj protein kev lag luam ". Cov kev cov nyom no suav nrog kev tsis sib haum xeeb hauv Ukraine, kev kis tus kab mob COVID-19 tsis tu ncua, kev kis mob khaub thuas avian (AI) tshwm sim, thiab yog li kev lag luam tag nrho poob.
Tseem ceeb heev, Nan-Dirk tau tshuaj xyuas qhov cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau thaj chaw thaj chaw tam sim no ntawm Russia thiab Ukraine muaj rau kev ua haujlwm ntawm kev lag luam, suav nrog cov nqi hluav taws xob, kev lag luam qe thiab cov nqi noj ceev ceev.
Qhia meej tias Ukraine, Russia thiab Belarus muaj 20-30% ntawm kev xa tawm thoob ntiaj teb ntawm cov nplej, nws hais tias: "Yog tias koj saib los ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom, qhov cuam tshuam loj tshaj plaws yog nyob rau sab pub." Yog li, kev lag luam tau ntsib 40% siab dua tus nqi pub khoom noj txhua xyoo (YOY). Tsis tas li ntawd, nws hais ntxiv tias peb lub tebchaws no tseem tswj hwm 10% ntawm kev lag luam qe thoob ntiaj teb, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntxiv rau kev ua lag luam.
Kev kis tus kab mob khaub thuas avian (AI) kuj tseem yog qhov tseem ceeb, nrog rau kev hais txog qhov cuam tshuam tsis zoo uas lawv muaj rau kev tsim khoom hauv zos, kev lag luam qe thiab cov khoom lag luam. "Avian Influenza tau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev thoob ntiaj teb, tab sis qhov cuam tshuam loj tshaj plaws tam sim no yog nyob rau North America," piav qhia Nan-Dirk.
Cov kev cuam tshuam tseem ceeb no, nrog rau kev rov qab los txuas ntxiv los ntawm COVID-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, tau ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam kev lag luam tag nrho, ua rau muaj teeb meem kev nyab xeeb khoom noj thiab muaj kev ntxhov siab ntau dua rau cov neeg siv khoom siv zog.
Txawm hais tias muaj ntau qhov kev sib tw uas peb tab tom ntsib tam sim no, Nan-Dirk tau hais qhia tias cov qe tau ua haujlwm zoo raws li tus nqi qis tshaj plaws ntawm cov tsiaj protein, thiab xaus nrog kev pom zoo: "Tus nqi ntawm kev ua tau zoo yog them tam sim no ntau dua li yav dhau los."