Chibage uye soya bhinzi yepasirese maonero: chii chinotarisirwa muna 2031?
Mune ichangoburwa nhengo yeIEC-yakasarudzika mharidzo, Adolfo Fontes, Global Business Intelligence Manager kuDSM Animal Nutrition uye Hutano, akapa ruzivo rweruzivo rwezvichaitika pasi rose mukugadzirwa kwechibage nesoya.
Akatanga nekusimbisa kuti mumakore 2-3 anotevera, huwandu hwekusagadzikana huchakanganisa kurima, kusanganisira:
- Geopolitical kugadzikana
- Kubudirira kwezvirimwa uye dambudziko remagetsi
- Kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze
- Covid 19 uye inflation
Tichitarisa mberi kumakore gumi anotevera, anoratidza kuti kukura kwevanhu pasi rose kuchakanganisa zvikuru zvekurima nekuda kwekuwedzera kuri kutarisirwa kudiwa kweprotein yemhuka. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti panosvika 2031, mamwe matani 71 miriyoni emapuroteni emhuka achadiwa pasi rose. Nhamba dzichangoburwa (2021) dzinoratidza kuti matani mamiriyoni makumi mapfumbamwe nemaviri emazai anogadzirwa pasi rose - izvi zvinotarisirwa kuwedzera ne92% mumakore gumi anotevera. Saka, mazai anogona kuve mhinduro huru yekusangana neprotein inoda yeramangwana.
"Kana tikaona mari yakawanda muhomwe dzevanhu, tichaona kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kweprotein yemhuka", Adolfo akafanotaura.
Kupa mapuroteni emhuka kune huwandu hwevanhu, kudiwa kwezviyo nembeu yemafuta kuchawedzera; saka, zvakakosha kuti tiongorore magadzirirwo nemaitiro ekushandisa munzvimbo dzakasiyana pasi rose.
Kushandiswa kwezviyo nembeu yemafuta mumakore gumi apfuura
Mumakore gumi apfuura, kushandiswa kwekudya kwezviyo kwakawedzera ne30%, nechibage chinomiririra 70% yezviyo izvi. Munguva imwe cheteyo, kushandiswa kwekudya kwembeu dzemafuta kwakawedzera nekanopfuura 34%, ne70% yechikafu ichi chiri soya. Nekuwedzera kwekuda kweprotein yemhuka muna 2031, tichada mamwe matani 45 miriyoni esoya beans kuti tikwanise kugadzira 35 miriyoni matani esoya uye mamwe 95 miriyoni matani echibage.
Corn overview
Nepo kugadzirwa kwechibage kwakawedzera kubva 2001 kusvika 2022, kubva pa571 miriyoni matani kusvika 1,161 miriyoni matani, mwero wekuwedzera uku wakadzikira nekuwedzera kwe34.2% kwakapupurwa kubva 2011 kusvika 2021, kusiyana ne51.3% kuwedzera kubva 2001 kusvika 2011.
Kuwedzera kwakanyanya mukugadzirwa kwechibage mumakore gumi apfuura pasi rose kwakaonekwa muArgentina (kupfuura 150%). Nekudaro, iyo USA ichiri kuchengetedza nzvimbo yayo semugadziri mukuru wechibage pasi rose, ichigadzira 384 miriyoni matani echibage muna 2021/2022. China ndiyo yechipiri mugadziri mukuru, aona kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwe2.9% mumakore gumi apfuura. Adolfo anoburitsa pachena kuti kunyange China ichigadzira 23.5% yechibage chepasi rose, ichiri kuda kutengwa kunze kwenyika, ichidyiwa ne26.9%.
Corn projections
Kugadzirwa kwechibage chepasi rose kunofungidzirwa kuti kuchawedzera neinosvika 9% mumakore gumi anotevera - uku kudzikira kwehuwandu hwekugadzira zvichienzaniswa ne34% yekuwedzera mumakore gumi apfuura. Africa inotarisirwa kuve nechikamu chikuru chekuwedzera mukugadzirwa pa25%.
Zvibereko zviri kuwedzera pasi rose, nekuwedzera kwepasi rose kwe6.4% inotarisirwa ne 2031. Izvi zvinonyanya kukosha muAfrica, Latin America neAsia, nekuwedzera kwe17.7%, 8.6% uye 8.7%, maererano.
Nzvimbo yose ichakohwewa yekurima chibage inofungidzirwa kuti ichasvika pa211
Panyaya dzematunhu, North America neAsia dzinotarisirwa kuenderera mberi dzichitungamira kugadzirwa kwechibage muna 2031 maererano nemamiriyoni ematani echibage anogadzirwa.
Soybean muchidimbu
Pakazere, kubva muna 2001 kusvika 2022, kugadzirwa kwesoya yepasi rose kwakawedzera pamwero unokurumidza, nekuwedzera kwe46.9% mukugadzirwa kwakaonekwa mumakore gumi apfuura zvichienzaniswa nekuwedzera kwe30% mumakore gumi ekutanga ezana rino. Kubva 2012 kusvika 2022, Brazil yakaona kuwedzera kunosvika makumi mapfumbamwe muzana mukugadzirwa, ichipfuura USA kuti ive mugadziri mukuru wesoya bhinzi pasi rose, inomiririra 90% yekugadzirwa muna 36.2/2021 nematani zana nemakumi maviri nematanhatu emamiriyoni. IUS ikozvino ndiyo yechipiri pakukura mugadziri, aine 2022 miriyoni matani muna 126.
Kutengwa kwesoya bhinzi kuChina kwakakwira, nyika ino ichimirira 4.7% chete yekugadzirwa uku ichidya 31% yemugove wenyika. Kusiyana neizvi, US iri kugadzira 34.7% asi ichidya 18.4%.
Soybean projections
Kubva 2021 kusvika 2031, kugadzirwa kwesoya beans kunotarisirwa kuwedzera pasi rose ne15.7%, kuderera kubva mumakore gumi apfuura '47% kuwedzera.
Kugadzirwa kwesoya bean kunotongwa nenyika dzeAmerica, neLatin America inofungidzirwa kuti ichatungamira muna 2031 pa217 tons (kuwedzera kwe20%) uye North America yechipiri pa138 miriyoni matani mushure mekuwedzera kwe9% mumakore gumi. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti zvakazara, Latin America ichave inotarisira matani anosvika mamirioni makumi mana emamwe matani esoya mumakore gumi anotevera.
Avhareji yegoho resoya richawedzerawo nechikamu che12% pasi rose, Latin America chete ichiona kuwedzera kwegoho ne17%.
Saka...chibage chedu nesoya beans zvichabvepi mumakore matatu anotevera?
Pakazere, imwezve 55.9 miriyoni matani esoya inotarisirwa kugadzirwa mumakore gumi anotevera - 21.6 miriyoni matani eiyi achabva kuBrazil, aine 9.4 uye 8.9 achibva kuArgentina neUSA, zvichiteerana.
109.5 miriyoni matani mamwe chibage achagadzirwa mumakore gumi anotevera. China, Brazil neUSA ndivo vachave vanonyanya kubatsira pane izvi, pamwe nekuwedzera 24.2, 21.7 uye 16.6 miriyoni matani, zvichiteerana.
Tsvaga zvimwe!
Kuti uwane rumwe ruzivo nezve chibage nesoya bhinzi munharaunda yako, tinya bhatani riri pazasi kuti uone mharidzo yaAdolfo izere. Ndokumbira utarise kuti kuwana vhidhiyo iyi ndekwenhengo dzeIEC chete.
Dzvanya pano kuti uone mharidzo yakazara