Pono ea lefatše ea poone le linaoa tsa soya: ho lebelletsoe eng ka 2031?
Puisanong ea morao-rao e ikhethileng ea setho sa IEC, Adolfo Fontes, Mookameli oa Global Business Intelligence ho DSM Animal Nutrition and Health, o fane ka temohisiso e nang le tsebo mabapi le mekhoa ea bokamoso ea lefats'e ea tlhahiso ea poone le soya.
O qalile ka ho totobatsa hore lilemong tse 2-3 tse tlang, mefuta e mengata ea lipelaelo e tla ama temo, ho kenyelletsa:
- Geopolitical botsitso
- Phaello ea lijalo le mathata a matla
- Phetoho ea boemo ba leholimo
- Covid 19 le inflation
Ha a shebile pele lilemong tse leshome tse tlang, o fana ka maikutlo a hore kholo ea baahi ba lefatše e tla ama temo haholo ka lebaka la keketseho e lebelletsoeng ea tlhoko ea protheine ea liphoofolo. Ho boleloa esale pele hore ka 2031, ho tla hlokahala litone tse eketsehileng tse limilione tse 71 tsa protheine ea liphoofolo lefatšeng ka bophara. Lipalo-palo tsa morao-rao (2021) li bontša hore lithane tse limilione tse 92 tsa mahe li hlahisoa lefatšeng ka bophara - sena se lebelletsoe ho eketseha ka 15% lilemong tse leshome tse tlang. Kahoo, mahe e ka ba tharollo e ntle ea ho fihlela litlhoko tsa protheine tsa bokamoso.
"Haeba re bona chelete e ngata ka lipokothong tsa baahi, re tla bona keketseho ea tlhahiso ea liprotheine tsa liphoofolo", Adolfo o ile a bolela esale pele.
Ho fana ka protheine ea liphoofolo ho baahi, tlhoko ea lijo-thollo le peo ea oli e tla eketseha; ka hona, ho bohlokoa ho hlahloba mekhoa ea tlhahiso le tšebeliso libakeng tse fapaneng lefatšeng ka bophara.
Tšebeliso ea lijo-thollo le peo ea oli lilemong tse 10 tse fetileng
Lilemong tse leshome tse fetileng, tšebeliso ea lijo-thollo e eketsehile ka 30%, 'me poone e emetse 70% ea lijo-thollo tsena. Ka nako e tšoanang, tšebeliso ea lijo tsa peo ea oli e eketsehile ka 34% feela, 'me 70% ea lijo tsena ke soya. Ka keketseho ea tlhokeho ea protheine ea liphoofolo ka 2031, re tla hloka lithane tse ling tse limilione tse 45 tsa linaoa tsa soya hore re tsebe ho hlahisa lithane tse limilione tse 35 tsa soymeal le lithane tse ling tse limilione tse 95 tsa poone.
Poone kakaretso
Leha tlhahiso ea poone ka kakaretso e eketsehile ho tloha 2001 ho isa 2022, ho tloha ho lithane tse limilione tse 571 ho isa ho lithane tse limilione tse 1,161, sekhahla sa keketseho ena se theohile ka keketseho ea 34.2% e pakiloeng ho tloha 2011 ho isa 2021, ho fapana le keketseho ea 51.3% ho tloha 2001 ho isa 2011.
Keketseho e kholo ea tlhahiso ea poone lilemong tse leshome tse fetileng lefatšeng ka bophara e bonahetse Argentina (ho feta 150%). Leha ho le joalo, USA e ntse e boloka sebaka sa eona e le mohlahisi e moholo oa poone lefatšeng, e hlahisa lithane tse limilione tse 384 tsa poone ka 2021/2022. China ke mohlahisi oa bobeli ka boholo, kaha e bone keketseho ea tlhahiso ea 2.9% lilemong tse leshome tse fetileng. Adolfo o totobatsa hore leha China e hlahisa 23.5% ea poone ea lefats'e, e ntse e hloka ho reka kantle ho naha, ka tšebeliso ea 26.9%.
Likhakanyo tsa poone
Ho hakanngoa hore tlhahiso ea poone lefatšeng ka bophara e tla eketseha ka hoo e ka bang 9% lilemong tse leshome tse tlang - sena ke ho fokotseha ha sekhahla sa tlhahiso ha ho bapisoa le keketseho ea 34% lilemong tse leshome tse fetileng. Afrika e lebelletsoe ho ba le keketseho e kholo ea liperesente tsa tlhahiso ho 25%.
Lihlahisoa li ntse li ntlafala lefatšeng ka bophara, ka keketseho ea lefats'e ea 6.4% e lebelletsoeng ka 2031. Sena se hlokomeleha ka ho khetheha Afrika, Latin America le Asia, ka keketseho ea 17.7%, 8.6% le 8.7%, ka ho latellana.
Kakaretso ea sebaka se kotuloang bakeng sa tlhahiso ea poone ho hakanngoa hore e tla fihla ho 211
Mabapi le libaka, Amerika Leboea le Asia li lebelletsoe ho tsoela pele ho etella pele tlhahiso ea poone ka 2031 mabapi le lithane tse limilione tsa poone e hlahisoang.
Kakaretso ea soya
Ka kakaretso, ho tloha ka 2001 ho isa 2022, tlhahiso ea soya lefatšeng ka bophara e eketsehile ka sekhahla se potlakileng, ka keketseho ea 46.9% ea tlhahiso e bonoang lilemong tse leshome tse fetileng ha ho bapisoa le keketseho ea 30% lilemong tse leshome tse qalang tsa lekholo lena la lilemo. Ho tloha 2012 ho isa 2022, Brazil e bone keketseho e ka bang 90% ea tlhahiso, e fetang USA ho ba mohlahisi e moholo oa soya lefatšeng ka bophara, e emetse 36.2% ea tlhahiso ka 2021/2022 ka lithane tse limilione tse 126. US hajoale e se e le mohlahisi oa bobeli o moholo, ka lithane tse limilione tse 121 ka 2022.
Ho romelwa ha soya ka ntle ho naha ya China ho hodimo, mme naha ena e emetse feela 4.7% ya tlhahiso ha e ja karolo ya 31% ya karolo ya lefatshe. Ka lehlakoreng le leng, US e hlahisa 34.7% empa e ja 18.4%.
Likhakanyo tsa soya
Ho tloha ka 2021 ho isa ho 2031, tlhahiso ea soya e lebelletsoe ho eketseha lefatšeng ka bophara ka 15.7%, e leng ho theoha ho tloha lilemong tse leshome tse fetileng tsa keketseho ea 47%.
Tlhahiso ea soya e laoloa ke Amerika, 'me Latin America e lebelletsoe ho etella pele ka 2031 ho lithane tse 217 (keketseho ea 20%) le Amerika Leboea ea bobeli ho lithane tse limilione tse 138 ka mor'a keketseho ea 9% lilemong tse leshome. Ho boleloa esale pele hore ka kakaretso, Latin America e tla ikarabella bakeng sa lithane tse ka bang limilione tse 40 tsa soya e eketsehileng lilemong tse leshome tse tlang.
Karolelano ea lihlahisoa tsa soya le eona e tla eketseha ka 12% lefatšeng ka bophara, ha Latin America feela e bona keketseho ea 17%.
Joale… poone ea rona le linaoa tsa soya li tla tsoa kae lilemong tse 10 tse tlang?
Ka kakaretso, ho hakanngoa hore ho tla hlahisoa lithane tse limilione tse 55.9 tsa soya lilemong tse leshome tse tlang - lithane tse limilione tse 21.6 tsa sena li tla tsoa Brazil, 'me 9.4 le 8.9 li tsoa Argentina le USA, ka ho latellana.
Ho tla hlahisoa lithane tse limilione tse 109.5 tsa poone lilemong tse leshome tse tlang. China, Brazil le USA e tla ba tsona tse tlatselletsang ho sena, ka ho eketsa lithane tse limilione tse 24.2, 21.7 le 16.6 ka ho latellana.
Fumana ho eketsehileng!
Ho fumana lintlha tse ling mabapi le mekhoa ea poone le linaoa tsa soya sebakeng sa heno, tobetsa konopo e ka tlase ho shebella tlhahiso e felletseng ea Adolfo. Ka kopo hlokomela hore phihlello ea video ena ke ea litho tsa IEC feela.
Tobetsa mona ho shebella tlhahiso e felletseng