Imijikelo yexabiso lokuziinkozo: Iimbono zangaphambili zixhasa umbono onethemba woshishino lwamaqanda
9 May 2023
Ngexesha lohlaziyo lwakhe lwamva nje lwe-IEC ngoLwesibini we-18 kuTshazimpuzi, u-Adolfo Fontes, uMphathi oPhezulu woBukrelekrele boShishino lweGlobal kwi-DSM yeZondlo zeZilwanyana kunye neMpilo, unike amagqabantshintshi engcaphephe 'yeMijikelo yeXabiso loNkozo – Yintoni Esinokuyifunda Kumava Angaphambili?'
Ukunikezela kubathunywa behlabathi kwiNkomfa yezoShishino ye-IEC e-Barcelona, u-Adolfo unike imbono emfutshane yexesha elifutshane kunye nexesha elide, ngaphambi kokuba anike uhlalutyo olubanzi lwembali yombona, ingqolowa kunye neembotyi zesoya, esebenzisa imizekelo yangaphambili ukunika ulwazi kwixesha elizayo.
Izinto ezichaphazela ikamva
Ukuqala intetho yakhe, u-Adolfo uhlolisise ukungaqiniseki kwixesha elifutshane elichaphazela ikhonkco lexabiso leqanda, ukuhlalutya inqanaba leempembelelo kunye nokuqikelelwa.
Ebhekisa kwimicelimngeni yezoqoqosho yehlabathi, wacacisa wathi: “Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokuziphatha kwabathengi kuya kuba kuhle ngakumbi ukuba sithelekisa nexesha elidlulileyo.” Wachaza imeko yezoqoqosho ngokuthi "ayikaqinisekanga, kodwa ingaphantsi kakhulu kunokuba yayinjalo", xa kuthelekiswa nokuphela konyaka ophelileyo. Kwakhona wayenethemba malunga neendleko zemveliso: "Amaxabiso okutya okuziinkozo, iindleko zamandla - ebephucuka kakhulu kwezi nyanga zimbalwa zidlulileyo." Esebenzisa uphononongo lwaseNetherlands, u-Adolfo ubonise indlela amaxabiso erhasi yendalo eqale ngayo ukwehla kakhulu, emva kwencopho malunga noSeptemba ka-2022.
UAdolfo ukwaqaqambise ukubaluleka kweemeko zemozulu kwishishini lokutya okuziinkozo, ecinga ngeminyaka embalwa ecelomngeni kakhulu kuMzantsi Merika: “IArgentina iye yachatshazelwa kakhulu yiminyaka elandelelanayo yemozulu yaseLa Niña, ibe nefuthe elibonakalayo ekufumanekeni kwesoya kwihlabathi liphela. ukuba ngabona bathengisela amanye amazwe.” Emva koko wachaza ukuba i-forecast kulindeleke ukuba ingathathi hlangothi, ekhokelela kwiziphumo ezingcono kwishishini lengqolowa. Nangona kunjalo, utshintsho kwiimeko ze-El Niño kamva kulo nyaka lunokwenzeka, nto leyo eyongeza ukungaqiniseki kwimbonakalo.
Isithethi esiyingcali sikwabone izinto ezingenathemba kangako: “Ewe, kunzima kakhulu ukuqikelela izifo.” Ebalaselisa umkhuhlane wehagu waseAfrika kunye nomkhuhlane weentaka njengezona zinto zixhalabisayo, wathi: "Azizukuchaphazela kuphela ikhonkco lexabiso leprotheyini yezilwanyana, kodwa nakwiimarike zengqolowa." Okokugqibela, uye wavuma iintsingiselo ze-geopolitical “njengezona zinzima” ukuzicingela, ngelixa egxininisa inqanaba elibalulekileyo lempembelelo abanayo kwikhonkco lexabiso lethu.
Ejonge phambili kumhlaba wexesha elide, uAdolfo wachaza ukuba sinokulindela “ukukhula okuqinileyo” kwicandelo lethu: “Ukuveliswa kwamaqanda kulindeleke ukuba, kwaye kufuneka, kwande ngeetoni ezizizigidi ezili-14 kule minyaka ili-10 izayo ukuhlangabezana nemfuno yehlabathi.”
Umbona, ingqolowa kunye neembotyi zesoya: Imikhwa yangaphambili
Ukulandela le nkcazo, uAdolfo wenze uphononongo olunzulu lwamaxabiso onyaka nonyaka. Uchonge ukuba kukho amaxesha amane kuphela kule nkulungwane idlulileyo, ngaphambi kowama-2021, apho amaxabiso arekhodiweyo ubuncinci ezibini kwezithathu zezityalo eziziintloko, apho ukonyuka kwamaxabiso kuye kwagcinwa iminyaka emibini okanye ngaphezulu ilandelelana. Ezi yayizi: 1973-74, 1994-95, 2006-08, kunye no-2010-12.
Emva koko uAdolfo wahlalutya izizathu zamaxabiso erekhodi kule minyaka. Izinto eziphembelela ixesha ngalinye zibonise izinto ezininzi zokungaqiniseki zanamhlanje ezixoxwe ngaphambili kwinkcazo yakhe, kuquka; iimeko zemozulu, utshintsho kwezoqoqosho, kunye nokufumaneka kwemathiriyeli ekrwada.
Wongeze ukuba amaxabiso eenkozo amva nje afikelele kwezi rekhodi iminyaka elandelelanayo yayingo-2021-2022, ngenxa yezinto ezibandakanya ukuphazamiseka kwe-COVID-19, uhlaselo lwaseRussia lwase-Ukraine, kunye nemozulu embi kakhulu: “Ke uqhwithela olugqibeleleyo lwenza ukuba kwenzeke kwakhona okwesihlanu. Kwinkulungwane edluleyo, ezibini kwezithathu izivuno eziphambili ziye zafikelela amanqanaba abalaseleyo kangangeminyaka emibini nangaphezulu.”
Ngenxa yokuba ixesha ngalinye lembali lilandelwe kukuhla kwamaxabiso okuziinkozo, uAdolfo ubonise ukuba sinokulindela amaxabiso azinzileyo kule minyaka imbalwa izayo kulandela ukwenzeka kwamva nje kwamanqanaba erekhodi..
Imbono enethemba
U-Adolfo uphinde wafunda ulungelelwaniso phakathi komlinganiselo we-stocks-to-use ratio kunye namaxabiso ombona, ingqolowa kunye neembotyi zesoya. Uye waxoxa ukuba ngaphandle kwezinye izinto ezibangelwa ziziganeko ezingazange zibonwe ngaphambili ezinje ngohlaselo lwaseRussia lwaseUkraine kunye ne-COVID-19, kukho indlela amaxabiso aya kuyilandela ngokwesiqhelo. "Ukuba ukhangele iingqikelelo ze-USDA kwiinkathi ezintathu ezizayo, sinokulindela ukuba amaxabiso aya kulandela lo mgca, kodwa kwinqanaba eliphezulu," wachaza. "Oku kuthetha ukuba amaxabiso aya kuqhubeka ehla, kodwa azinze kwinqanaba eliphezulu - ngokufanayo naleyo yenzeka ngeminyaka yoo-70s, 90s, kunye no-2000s."
“Ndicinga ukuba imeko yemarike yangoku yahluke kakhulu kuneyakudala,” uqukumbele watsho, “kodwa sinokuba nethemba ngakumbi kancinane malunga namaxabiso eenkozo kwezi sizini zintathu zizayo. Inokutshintsha, ewe, xa sijonga imeko yemfazwe, xa sijonga imeko yemozulu, kodwa lo ngumfanekiso esinokuwuzoba namhlanje. "
Fumana umfanekiso opheleleyo
Zuza kuhlalutyo olupheleleyo luka-Adolfo lwexesha elidlulileyo kunye nakwixesha elizayo lomjikelo wamaxabiso okutya okuziinkozo. Jonga inkcazo-ntetho yakhe ngoku ukuze ufumane ulwazi olongezelelekileyo kuqikelelo lwamaxabiso athile, imveliso yexesha elizayo kunye nesivuno, kunye nembonakalo yemarike ye-biofuel (ifumaneka kumalungu e-IEC kuphela).