Umbono womhlaba wommbila nobhontshisi wesoya: yini elindeleke ngo-2031?
Esethulweni sakamuva esikhethekile selungu le-IEC, u-Adolfo Fontes, iGlobal Business Intelligence Manager kwaDSM Animal Nutrition and Health, unikeze ulwazi oluningilizayo mayelana nezitayela zomhlaba zesikhathi esizayo zokukhiqiza ummbila nobhontshisi wesoya.
Uqale ngokugqamisa ukuthi eminyakeni emi-2-3 ezayo, izinhlobonhlobo zokungaqiniseki zizoba nomthelela kwezolimo, okuhlanganisa:
- Ukuzinza kwe-Geopolitical
- Inzuzo yezitshalo kanye nenkinga yamandla
- Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu
- I-Covid 19 kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali
Uma ebheka phambili eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo, uphakamisa ukuthi ukukhula kwenani labantu emhlabeni kuzoba nomthelela omkhulu kwezolimo ngenxa yokwanda okulindelekile kwesidingo samaprotheni ezilwane. Kubikezelwa ukuthi ngo-2031, kuzodingeka amathani engeziwe ayizigidi ezingama-71 wamaprotheni ezilwane emhlabeni wonke. Izibalo zakamuva (ka-2021) zikhombisa ukuthi ayizigidi ezingama-92 amathani amaqanda akhiqizwa emhlabeni wonke - lokhu kulindeleke ukuthi kwenyuke ngo-15% kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo. Ngakho-ke, amaqanda angaba yisixazululo esihle sokuhlangabezana nezidingo zamaphrotheni zesikhathi esizayo.
"Uma sibona imali eningi emaphaketheni abantu, sizobona ukwanda kokukhiqizwa kwamaprotheni ezilwane", u-Adolfo wabikezela.
Ukuhlinzeka ngamaprotheni ezilwane kubantu, isidingo sokusanhlamvu kanye nembewu yamafutha sizokhula; ngakho-ke, kubalulekile ukubuyekeza ukukhiqizwa nokusetshenziswa kwezindawo ezifundeni ezahlukahlukene emhlabeni jikelele.
Ukusetshenziswa okusanhlamvu nembewu kawoyela kule minyaka eyi-10 edlule
Kule minyaka eyishumi edlule, ukusetshenziswa kokudla okusanhlamvu kukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angama-30, kanti ummbila umele u-70% walezi zinhlamvu. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukusetshenziswa kokudla kwembewu kawoyela kukhuphuke ngaphezudlwana nje kuka-34%, kanti u-70% walokhu kudla okuwubhontshisi wesoya. Ngokukhula kwesidingo samaphrotheni ezilwane ngo-2031, sizodinga amathani engeziwe ayizigidi ezingama-45 kabhontshisi wesoya ukuze sikwazi ukukhiqiza amathani ayizigidi ezingama-35 kasoya kanye namanye amathani ayizigidi ezingama-95 ommbila.
Ukubuka konke kommbila
Ngenkathi ukukhiqizwa kommbila sekukonke kukhuphuke kusuka ku-2001 kuya ku-2022, kusuka kumathani ayizigidi ezingama-571 kuya kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-1,161, izinga lalokhu kukhula lehlile ngokunyuka okungama-34.2% okubonwe kusukela ngo-2011 kuya ku-2021, ngokungafani nokunyuka okungama-51.3% kusuka ku-2001 kuya ku-2011.
Ukwanda okuphawulekayo kokukhiqizwa kommbila kule minyaka eyishumi edlule kubonakale emhlabeni wonke e-Argentina (ngaphezu kuka-150%). Kodwa-ke, i-USA isayigcinile indawo yayo njengomkhiqizi omkhulu wommbila emhlabeni, ikhiqiza amathani ommbila ayizigidi ezingama-384 ngo-2021/2022. I-China ingumkhiqizi wesibili ngobukhulu, njengoba ibone ukwanda kokukhiqizwa ngo-2.9% kule minyaka eyishumi edlule. U-Adolfo ugqamise ukuthi nakuba iChina ikhiqiza u-23.5% wommbila womhlaba, kusadingeka ukuthi ithenge kwamanye amazwe, kanti idla u-26.9%.
Ukuqagela kommbila
Ukukhiqizwa kommbila emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuthi kwenyuke cishe ngo-9% kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo - lokhu ukwehla kwezinga lokukhiqiza uma kuqhathaniswa nokunyuka ngo-34% kule minyaka eyishumi edlule. I-Afrika kulindeleke ukuthi ibe nokwenyuka kwamaphesenti amakhulu ekukhiqizeni ngo-25%.
Isivuno siyathuthuka emhlabeni wonke, njengoba kulindeleke ukuthi kunyuke umhlaba wonke ngo-6.4% ngo-2031. Lokhu kuphawuleka ikakhulukazi e-Afrika, eLatin America nase-Asia, ngokunyuka ngo-17.7%, 8.6% no-8.7% ngokulandelana.
Ingqikithi yendawo evunwayo yokukhiqiza ummbila ibikezelwa ukuthi izofinyelela ku-211
Ngokwezifunda, iNyakatho Melika ne-Asia kulindeleke ukuthi ziqhubeke nokuhola ukukhiqizwa kommbila ngo-2031 mayelana namathani ayizigidi zommbila akhiqizwayo.
Uhlolojikelele lukabhontshisi wesoya
Sekukonke, kusukela ngo-2001 kuya ku-2022, ukukhiqizwa kukabhontshisi wesoya emhlabeni wonke kukhule ngesivinini esisheshayo, nokukhuphuka ngo-46.9% komkhiqizo okubonwe eminyakeni eyishumi edlule uma kuqhathaniswa nokwanda okungama-30% eshumini lokuqala lale khulu leminyaka. Kusukela ngo-2012 kuya ku-2022, iBrazil yabona ukukhula kokukhiqizwa okucishe kube ngama-90%, idlula i-USA ukuze ibe umkhiqizi omkhulu kabhontshisi kasoya emhlabeni wonke, okumele ukukhiqizwa kuka-36.2% ngo-2021/2022 ngamathani ayizigidi eziyi-126. I-US manje isingumkhiqizi wesibili ngobukhulu, ngamathani ayizigidi eziyi-121 ngo-2022.
Ukuthengwa kukabhontshisi wesoya kwamanye amazwe kuphezulu, kanti lesi sizwe simele kuphela u-4.7% womkhiqizo kuyilapho sisebenzisa u-31% wesabelo somhlaba. Ngokuphambene, i-US ikhiqiza ama-34.7% kodwa idla u-18.4%.
Izilinganiso zesoya
Kusukela ngo-2021 kuya ku-2031, ukukhiqizwa kukabhontshisi wesoya kulindeleke ukuthi kwenyuke emhlabeni wonke ngo-15.7%, okuwukwehla kusukela eminyakeni eyishumi eyedlule ekhuphuke ngo-47%.
Ukukhiqizwa kukabhontshisi wesoya kugcwele amazwe aseMelika, kanti iLatin America kulindeleke ukuthi ihole ngo-2031 ngamathani angama-217 (ukwanda ngo-20%) kanye neNyakatho Melika okwesibili ngamathani ayizigidi eziyi-138 ngemuva kokunyuka ngo-9% kule minyaka eyishumi. Kubikezelwa ukuthi sekukonke, iLatin America izobhekana namathani acishe abe yizigidi ezingama-40 kabhontshisi wesoya engeziwe eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo.
Isilinganiso sesivuno sikabhontshisi wesoya sizokwenyuka ngo-12% emhlabeni jikelele, kanti i-Latin America iyodwa ibona ukwanda kwesivuno ngo-17%.
Pho...uzovelaphi ummbila wethu nobhontshisi wesoya eminyakeni emi-10 ezayo?
Sekukonke, amathani engeziwe ayizigidi ezingama-55.9 kabhontshisi kulindeleke ukuthi akhiqizwe eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo - amathani ayizigidi ezingama-21.6 alokhu azovela eBrazil, kanti angu-9.4 no-8.9 aqhamuka e-Argentina nase-USA, ngokulandelana.
Ummbila ongaphezu kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-109.5 uzokhiqizwa kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo. I-China, i-Brazil kanye ne-USA yizona ezizoba negalelo elikhulu kulokhu, ngamathani engeziwe angu-24.2, 21.7 kanye no-16.6 million, ngokulandelana.
Thola okwengeziwe!
Ukuze uthole ulwazi olwengeziwe mayelana nokuthrendayo kommbila nobhontshisi wesoya endaweni yangakini, chofoza inkinobho engezansi ukuze ubuke isethulo esigcwele sika-Adolfo. Sicela uqaphele ukuthi ukufinyelela le vidiyo okwamalungu e-IEC kuphela.
Chofoza lapha ukuze ubuke isethulo esigcwele